TV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University’s latest opinion poll has revealed that Labour are significantly ahead of the the Conservatives in Wales as we enter the second week of the General Election campaign.
The Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, revealed that 45% of people in Wales would vote for Labour in the upcoming General Election, up three points from our previous poll in December, whilst 18% would choose to vote for the Conservatives.
The poll also shows that Reform UK are polling stronger than Plaid Cymru, with over a quarter of those who voted for the Conservatives back in 2019 now backing Reform this time round. Whilst for Plaid, a third of their support in 2019 say they’ll be backing Labour in the upcoming election.
In response to a question about the performance of the Welsh Party Leaders, 57% believe that First Minister Vaughan Gething is performing badly, with only 15% of the view that he’s performing well.
Westminster voting intention:
- Labour – 45% (+3)
- Conservative – 18% (-2)
- Reform UK – 13% (+1)
- Plaid Cymru – 12% (-3)
- Lib Dem – 5% (-2)
- Green – 4% (+1)
- Other – 1%
Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre, says:
“These new figures are consistent with trends seen across the UK and add to the growing evidence that Labour are heading for a landslide victory in Wales winning slightly less than half of all votes cast, while the Conservatives are fighting to avoid an historic defeat and the loss of all Westminster representation in Wales.
Rather it is the total collapse of the Conservative electoral coalition in Wales, with their vote halving from 36% in 2019 to just 18% in this poll. As it stands, the odds of a return to the 1997-2005 period of no Conservative MPs in Wales are roughly the same as a coin flip.
The story for Plaid Cymru is a familiar one for them at Westminster elections, with voters switching in large numbers to the Labour Party. There is some evidence that this switch is a tactical one however, with their Senedd vote intention shows a substantial transfer of these voters back into the Plaid Cymru fold.
Reform UK are another beneficiary of Conservative collapse with 3 in 10 2019 Conservative votes intending to vote for them. While many expect Reform’s actual vote share to be smaller than these numbers suggest, this might not necessarily be the case. This poll suggests the Reform vote maybe more ‘sticky’ than previous similar elections.”
Adrian Masters, ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor said:
“Labour in Wales is continuing to enjoy a strong performance in our opinion poll. It will come as a welcome boost to a party that has been buffeted by controversy over candidate selection and criticism of the Welsh Labour leader. The poll shows that the Conservatives in Wales remain in difficult territory, with many of their previous supporters choosing to back Reform UK.
With support for Plaid Cymru slipping below that of Reform UK, this will be an interesting trend to keep an eye on as the campaign progresses.”
Barn Cymru is a collaborative partnership between ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, and the leading polling agency YouGov. The poll aims to provide an insight into people’s beliefs, attitudes and opinions and to gain real-time feedback on public views in Wales.
YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,066 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between 30th May – 3rd June for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University.